Some 622 Prolific-(un)vaccinated against COVID-19-users participated in an online quasi-experiment. Such comparisons may be crucial to curb the possibility of resurgence of COVID-19 by assessing how unvaccinated individuals perceive the probability of being infected by coronavirus. The present article not only replicates the most recent body of literature showing that people perceive themselves as less prone to COVID-19 infection than their peers, but fills the aforementioned gap by providing additional and more specific comparisons between those vaccinated and unvaccinated against COVID-19. To date, however, no research has proposed more specific comparisons. Unrealistic Optimism in the context of COVID-19 is described as the tendency to perceive peers as being more at risk of infection. We also put forward empirical and theoretical arguments for considering unbiased individuals as a separate phenomenon in the domain of self–others comparisons. We discuss the interpretation and implication of our results in the context of the academic and lay-persons' views on rationality. In Study 3 we also replicated the effect and found that realists hold more centric views on the trade-offs between threats from getting vaccinated and getting ill. In Study 2 we replicated the main effect and found no evidence for differences in psychological control between biased and unbiased groups. In two pre-registered, follow-up studies, we aimed at testing the reproducibility of this phenomenon and its explanations. In a mini meta-analysis of six studies (Study 1), we discovered that unbiased individuals have lower vaccine intention than biased ones. However, in previous and even the most recent studies, researchers often neglected to consider unbiased individuals and inspect the differences between biased and unbiased individuals. This is known as comparative optimism and it has been one of the reproducible effects in social psychology. Within different populations and at various stages of the pandemic, it has been demonstrated that individuals believe they are less likely to become infected than their average peer.
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